Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW: a new party shaking up German politics - UK in a changing Europe

20 Sep 2024

Europe

Sarah Wagner unpacks the rise of the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht – For Reason and Justice (BSW) – a new party shaking up German politics – ahead of state elections in Brandenburg.

The latest German state elections will take place this Sunday in Brandenburg. Hot on the heels of its success in recent state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is currently leading the polls with 29%, closely followed by the Social Democrats (SPD) at 26%. However, a party only launched eight months ago, Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht – For Reason and Justice (BSW), is making waves, and is currently in fourth place with 14% in the polls. While much of the coverage focused on the success of the AfD, the BSW – named for its leader Sahra Wagenknecht – also made headlines in Thuringia and Saxony, where it achieved 12% and 16% of the vote, respectively, positioning itself as a key player in those regions.

In Saxony and Thuringia, the success of the far-right AfD (which has been certified as a right-wing extremist party by the constitutional courts) has led to complicated coalition negotiations. All democratic parties, including the BSW, have publicly refused to govern alongside the AfD. As the AfD came first in Thuringia and second in Saxony, the BSW has become a potential kingmaker in three-party coalition negotiations, likely led by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Looking ahead to the elections in Brandenburg, the BSW could also play a decisive role in coalition talks if it maintains or improves its polling position.

Although the German party system has seen a recent increase in new parties, the sudden prominence of the BSW is unprecedented. Formed in January this year after much speculation, the party’s unique appeal lies in its anti-immigration stance and conservative cultural positions, such as scepticism towards gender-inclusive language and trans rights. At the same time, it advocates for higher minimum wages and insists that politics should focus on the interests of ‘normal families, employees, small and medium-sized businesses, and pensioners’. This combination of positions has earned the party a distinctive ‘left-conservative’ label within the German political landscape.

On top of its economic and cultural positions, the BSW has a particularly prominent stance on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. The party argues that Germany should stop sending weapons to Ukraine and that both Russia and Ukraine should enter peace talks. Wagenknecht, the party’s leader, has suggested that Ukraine may need to relinquish territory to reach a compromise with Russia.

Sympathy for Ukraine has been steadily declining across Germany, and in Eastern Germany, this sentiment is particularly strong, due to the region’s GDR legacy and long-standing nostalgia for, and positive perception of, Russia. This Russophile stance has become a key reason why many voters support BSW, not only because of its foreign policy but also as an expression of dissatisfaction with the federal government’s handling of the Ukraine conflict. The party’s position on the war also serves as a proxy for scepticism towards what many see as the ‘privileges’ afforded to Ukrainian refugees and plays into fears about energy security among economically precarious groups. The party’s affinity for Russia can be traced back to its origins.

The leader of the BSW, Sahra Wagenknecht, one of the most well-known and polarising figures in German politics, was born in the German Democratic Republic and was a member of the Socialist Unity Party, the ruling party of the GDR. She had early media appearances after the fall of the Berlin wall, where she voiced her disdain for capitalism, Western Germany and the end of Communism. Before founding her eponymous party, she was a leading figure within the Left Party and served as its parliamentary leader from 2015 to 2019.

Her departure from the Left Party, which she had joined in 1991 at the age of 22, came as no surprise after years of public dissent, especially regarding immigration issues. Even as a member of the Left Party, Wagenknecht made no secret of her opposition to its pro-immigration stance, particularly after the 2015 refugee crisis. These public positions have played a significant role in her appeal today, with the German public widely seeing her as a politician who speaks her mind and is associated with a left-wing economic and anti-immigration profile.

Wagenknecht lends a personalised and charismatic leadership style to the BSW. Her populist rhetoric and anti-establishment message have resonated strongly with disillusioned voters in East Germany, particularly in regions like Thuringia and Saxony.

Though still in its early stages in many parts of the country, the BSW’s growing influence could disrupt the traditional balance of power in Brandenburg and beyond as the party solidifies its political base in Eastern Germany. Wagenknecht stated that her party would only participate in a state government that demands immediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and opposes the stationing of US weapons systems in western Germany. Despite foreign policy being outside the jurisdiction of state governments, she aims to use her influence at the regional level to exert pressure on federal policy decisions.

With Wagenknecht’s leadership and the party’s emerging electoral successes, the BSW is poised to become a significant force in the region’s political landscape and a firm alternative to the far right extremist AfD. The party is also establishing state-level branches in Western Germany, most recently launching an offshoot in Bremen.

With the federal elections approaching next year, a crucial test for the young party will be whether it can organise its resources and administrative framework to enable a large national campaign. Even if it can, it remains uncertain whether BSW will achieve the same level of success in Western Germany, where its positions, particularly on Ukraine, are less popular.

By Dr Sarah Wagner, Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Quantitative Political Science, Queen’s University Belfast.

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